.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan,, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.7% Currencies: USA$ +.23% YEN -.78% BTC/USD -.86%  Vix: 20.5

·       News:  USA: ADP employment 815ET; Bowman, Barkin FOMC  Eur: UE 6.4%  inline  Middle east: Large missile attack by Iran, next move TBD

·       Stocks: NKE -7.9%, CAG -3.2%, LW -4.8% EPS  Energy XOM, CVX, FANG higher due to middle east CVS+3.6% higher on breakup narrative HUM -21% Medicare Advantage fell
Overview: SPY 567 support 565 564 and resistance 573 575  SPY expected move +/- 4.5 QQQ 480.6 with resistance 483 485 486.6 support 480 478 475 expected move +/- 5.3. USA equities and Europe are down slightly premarket with small caps significantly weaker. Middle east concerns are providing a bid to energy. Long yields are rising premarket which is negative for equities and counter usual risk-off behaviour. Bond market could be pricing higher inflation due to higher energy prices. Travel stocks are lower due to geopolitical risk and higher energy. Volatility futures are inverted with Oct greater than all forward months, which is a clear risk signal. SPX is below 5700 with 5720 the bull level and 5650 the bear breakdown level. MAG7 are mixed with NVDA leading and AAPL lagging. TSLA deliveries due today will be market moving. NKE earnings were weaker than expected which is weighing on the stock and can impact other retailers. China stocks in general are continuing to squeeze higher, very extended but shorts are still covering. ADP jobs were 143k vs 120k which is supportive for the market. The geopolitics are the driver today with market waiting on the next move. Best to pay attention to daily expected moves and trade departures above or below.

Expected moves SPY(573.1-564.1) QQQ(486.6-476) IWM(220.8-215) SPX(5754-5664)


Stocks to watch NVDA, KWEB, CVS, PDD, TSLA, TLT, NKE  Speculative BEKE

Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, UNG, USO, XLE, UUP, SLV, MSOS, ETHE, IBIT, IWM, XRT, XLY, TLT, KRE, GDX, ARKK, XLF

S&P500 CVS, FANG, UNH, APA, XOM, SLB, HAL, CVX, OXY, LVS, HUM, NKE, CAG, CCL, AAL, GEV, NCLH, UAL, DAL, SMCI

NASI PDD, FANG, PYPL
Other BEKE, FUTU, BILI, ZK, JD, LI, ZTO, CVS, CSIQ, HUM, NKE, TRP, HOG, ZIM, CAG, GFI, MBLY, GMAB, CCL, HMY, GEV, MSTR, ASTS, AAL

 

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA released Q3 production numbers and stock has reacted negatively with  250 forming a bull/bear level. Robo taxi event is Oct10 and potential for a bid to return. Options market is pricing +/-28 into the Robo taxi event. TSLA support 245 240 and resistance 255 260