.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.03%  Currencies:  USA$  -.18% YEN +.21% BTC/USD +1.6%  Vix: 18.7

·         News:  USA:  Housing starts China: GDP 4.6% Q/Y Industrial Production y/y 5.4% vs 3.3%

·         Stocks: NFLX+6.4%,  ISRG+6%, ALV+6.5%, ALLY+.7%, AXP-2.8%, PG-.7%, SLB-.4%,   EPS  DDOG+3% upgrade AAPL+1.8% China iPhone sales +20%. LW+7% activist  CVS -11% new CEO and forecast cut

·         Overview: SPY 583.8  support 578.3 582 580 579   and resistance 585 585.7 SPY expected move +/- 3.4 QQQ 494.2  with support 492.4 490 487.8   resistance 495  expected move +/- 3.5. Global indices are higher led by China which reported higher industrial production and retail sales and inline GDP which remains lower relative to the past. Pavlovian response is metals higher, Europe higher and of course China stocks higher. USA indices have been rising since Asian session ahead of Opex with SPX AM settled option settling at the open and PM at the close. NASI is the leading USA index with NFLX higher post earnings and AAPL up on report of higher China sales. PG and AXP are bellwether names with revenue misses. TSM is now being investigated by USA govt over  export violations to Huawei. Under reported but the semi companies depend on China for revenue and USA wishes to reduce shipments to China. Today is monthly Opex and call heavy. Expecting an increase in volatility with this expiration and higher potential for a drawdown with SPX5800 the key level with a 1-2% drawdown below 5800.

Expected moves SPY(585.7-579), QQQ (494.8-487.8), IWM (227.8-224.4), SPX (5875-5808)


Stocks to watch NVDA, AAPL, NFLX, LW, CVS, AXP, PG,    Speculative CLSK, ACMR

Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, IBIT, SLV, GDX, ETHE, GLD, SMH, QQQ, UNG, USO, TLT, UUP

S&P500 LW, NFLX, ISRG, FCX, LVS, WYNN, AAPL, NVDA, CVS, AXP, PG, SLB, HUM

NASI NFLX, PDD, AAPL
Other BILI, FUTU, LI, XPEV, JD, PDD, BIDU, CLSK, BABA, MSTR, CVS, SMR
 

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL is up premarket on a report that China iPhone sales were 20% higher. Call wall is 235 which is a bull/bear level. Calls at 237.5 can act as resistance or acceleration above.  Can use premarket high as a level for long or pullback > 236.3 which is premarket low or deeper pullback > 235. It is Opex today so potential for volatility in the afternoon and on the open SPX AM settlement.