.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.73%  Currencies:  USA$  +.12% YEN -.24% BTC/USD -0.9%  Vix: 18.55

·       News:  USA:  CB leading index m/m 10ET, more Fed speakers  China: PBOC rate cuts  5bps more than expected

·       Stocks: KVUE +8.2% Elliot activist involved BA+3% Strikers voting Wed  HUM+4.4% Merger talk with CI revived FTNT +1.8% upgrade NOW -1.6% downgrade Electrical/Nuclear names OKLO +3.1% GEV +1.2% Gold, Silver and miners are continuing with strong momentum

·       Overview: SPY 583.2 support 582 580 and resistance 584 585 587 SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 492.6 with support 491 490 488 resistance 495 497.6  expected move +/- 3.1. Global indices are lower premarket with China leading to downside despite PBOC rate cuts. Within USA the NASI is leading to the downside with MAG7 names with small pullbacks and IWM outperforming. Narrative that Trump is now the higher probability winner has ignited animal spirits for higher equity prices and higher inflation. This is reflected by yields rising and a strong rally in gold and bitcoin.Trump is deemed more supportive for crypto currencies. Financials are deemed to benefit from Trump due to lower regulation. Small caps, high valuation companies and high short interest names all outperformed last week. Last week was options expiration and typically leads to greater volatility as the positioning that has suppressed movement has been reduced. Election volatility has been reduced with the notion of a Trump win and coupled with bullish sentiment and indices technically stretched increases risk of a contrary pullback this week given that the bull side of the canoe is crowded. Of course it’s a market and the animal spirits can continue to power equity higher. SPX 5800 remains an important bull/bear level.

Expected moves SPY(587.3-581.9) QQQ(497.6-491.3) IWM(227.4-224) SPX(5891.7-5837.7)


Stocks to watch ETHE, BA, NEM, HUM, KVUE, TSLA, NVDA, PDD,    Speculative OKLO, SMR

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, UNG, SLV, GDX, XLE, GLD, US$, KWEB, FXI, TLT, EFA, SMH, IBIT, XLK, QQQ, ARKK, XLY

S&P500 KVUE, HUM, BA, FTNT, NEM, HAL, UPS, DAL, UAL, NOW, TSLA, LUV, CVS, AVGO

NASI FTNT, SIRI, PDD, ARM, TSLA, AVGO, QCOM, MU, MRVL,
Other WRBY, ELF, DAN, SMR,  ZETA, IONQ, ENVX, RKLB

 

Trade Idea: BA

BA is a damaged company but is getting a boost on news that the striking union is voting Wed to resolve. Large call positions at 160 which can be used as a reference level. Stock is very extended so one can look for a pullback > 160 or a momentum long > 162. Upside targets 165 170. Earnings Oct23 so this is a short term trade idea.