.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.4%  Currencies:  USA$  +.4%, YEN -1.3%, BTC/USD -1%,  Vix: 18.5

·         News:  USA:  Beige book 14ET  Canada: Expected to cut 50bps

·         Stocks:  T+2.7%,  KO-2%, SBUX-3.5%, CME-0.8%, GEV-1.8%, VRT-7.3%, BA-.9%  EPS MCD- 6.8% Ecoli issue; ARM issued 60d notice to cancel QCOM design license. QCOM-2.7%, ARM-3%  

·         Overview: SPY 581.4  support 581 580  and resistance 582 585 586 SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 494.1  with support 4992 490   resistance 495 498.7  expected move +/- 3.3.  Global indices weak premarket with all major indices ex-China lower. Macro set-up is negative with yields higher and Yen sharply lower which is lifting the US$ and pressuring bitcoin and commodities. USA indices are negative with SPY leading and IWM lagging. Earnings reactions have generally resulted in negative moves with ENPH the most notable which is weighing on semis. ARM/QCOM legal squabble is spilling over to other semis including NVDA which is the Charles Atlas for the USA stock market. SPY bottom of the daily expected move is being tested and as usual potential for a bounce or a larger move down if breached. The move in yields and the US$ are troubling and would normally lead to a larger market down move; however option positioning has been supportive but SPX 5800 remains an important bull/bear level to watch. MSFT today is outperforming the MAG7 as are META and GOOGL. If NVDA continues to be sold, look for rotation and also the usual buy the dip in NVDA, The ARM QCOM squabble is likely just noise that will be settled but in the short term can pressure the semis.

Expected moves SPY(586.1-581.1), QQQ (498.7-492.1), IWM (223.8-220.4), SPX (5879-5829)


Stocks to watch TTXN T MSFT ON  NVDA TLT ENPH SBUX MCD KO ARM QCOM  Speculative DJT

Pre-800ET
Indices FXI US$ KWEB UNG   ETHE IBIT USO SLV EFA XLY IWM TLT GDX SMH QQQ ARKK EWC XLE

S&P500 ON T TXN APH SW EBAY ENPH MCD STX SBUX BSX QCOM MAR HLT KO SMCI GEV FSLR

NASI ON TXN PDD SBUX ARM QCOM MAR SMCI ASML BKR CEG
Other DQ LI XPEV DJT STM CSTM ENPH VRT SEDG MCD OKLO EDU TAL

 

Trade Idea: MCD

MCD is dropping premarket on an Ecoli issue that has impacted several people with 1 fatality. Premarket high 298 and 282 low. Potential fade below 290 but this is a major volume level that can serve as support as well. MCD will move in 5 increments so 285 target below. Long trade can use the premarket high as a trigger for 300 and 305 targets.