.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.5%  Currencies:  USA$  -.2% YEN +.4% BTC/USD +0.1%  Vix: 18.8

·       News:  USA:  UE claims 830ET, Flash PMI 945ET EUR: mfg PMI 45.9 vs 45.1 JP: mfg PMI 49 vs 49.9

·       Stocks:  TSLA+13.7%, UPS+7.3%, LRCX +6%, LVS+3%, WHR+3.7%, TMUS+1.9%, NOW+1%, UNP-3%, HON-1.2%,  BA-3%, CARR-5.7%, NEM-4%, IBM-4% EPS

·       Overview: SPY 580.7 support 580 575 and resistance 581.6 582.3 SPY expected move +/- 3.6 QQQ 492.7 with support 490 484 484.2 resistance 492.5 495 expected move +/- 4.2. Global indices ex-China are higher with USA indices continuing to bounce since low Wed 14ET. SPY bounced perfectly off the weekly expected move and rose as 0DTE puts closed. Macro factors are positive with long yields and US$ falling. QQQ is the leading USA index with TSLA fueling a move in tech. TSLA has made an outsized move either due to the outstanding auto revenue +2% y/y or short squeeze, take your pick. Semis are higher with LRCX marginally beating estimates which of course means buy NVDA and AMD. Bitcoin is higher as befitting a risk-on tech morning as is ARKK which has a large TSLA holding. MAG7 are all positive led by TSLA NVDA with AAPL barely positive. Reports continue to suggest iPhone delivery risk ahead of the quarter. QQQ is close to the top of the daily expected move which means to look for one of 2 outcomes, a larger move to the upside or retracement. Wed recovery and the overnight move was largely put selling and will want to see call buying to become more constructive. SPX is still in a positive gamma state which means sell rips and buy dips. SPX5800 remains a good bull/bear level and in the premarket is above. Yields and the US$ are the important macro drivers. UE claims were 227k vs 243k so no employment risk based on data. PMI data at 9:45ET will be important as market is focused on the Fed’s next move. New home sales at 10ET is another important data point for the USA economy.

Expected moves SPY(581.6-574.4) QQQ(492.5-484.2) IWM(220.8-217.6) SPX(5833.4-5797)


Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, UPS, NEM, IBM, BA   Speculative ASTS, OKLO, DJT
Pre-800ET
Indices ARKK, XLY, IBIT, SMH, QQQ, SLV, UNG, XLK, GLD, ETHE, EFA, SPY, KWEB, FXI

S&P500 TSLA, UPS, LRCX, MU, F, AMD, NVDA, SMCI, PLTR, AVGO, GM, CARR, NEM, IBM, UBER, BA, LUV

NASI TSLA, LRCX, MU, NVDA, SMCI, AVGO 


 

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA has moved 2 standard deviations in what is a short squeeze post earnings. There are large call positions above price which can lead to continuation through a gamma squeeze. While > 240 look for 245, 250. A break below 240 can lead to 235, 230.  Below 230 would be an indication that the squeeze is over. Actual earnings were not impressive IMO, auto revenue is 2% higher y/y so more a case of not worse than expected and shorts are getting their fur burned.