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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.03%  Currencies: USA$  +.07% YEN -.43% BTC/USD +1.19%  Vix: 20.25

·       News:  USA: non-farm payroll 8:30ET; ISM mfg PMI 10ET : UK: mfg PMI 49.9 vs 50.1 

·       Stocks: AAPL-1.6%, RBLX-.4%, TEAM+20%, WAT+7.4%, AMZN+6.8%, INTC+4.8%, MGA+3.9%, CVX+2%, XOM+1.8%, CAH+1.8%, W+6.6%,  EPS 

·       Overview: SPY 571.4 has support at 570 and 565 and resistance at 574 and 575 SPY expected move +/- 5.4 QQQ 486.5  with support at 485, 480 and 477.7 resistance at 490 expected move +/- 7.3. USA non-farm payroll 12k vs 106k;  UE rate 4.1% as expected; average hourly earnings m/m 0.4% vs 0.3%. Algo reaction: US$ lower, SPY higher, 10y lower. Implied volatility is elevated into the jobs report and MAG7 earnings so usually this leads to a lift to equities as puts lose value and market makers remove shorts. Election next week will likely provide support to volatility. MAG7 leader AMZN higher post EPS close to the 200 target. AAPL lower with China sales missing. Remainder of MAG7 higher premarket and with Opex today, puts closing on the stocks that are down for the week can provide a lift today. SPX 5700 remains an important support level and SPX 5720 5750 resistance levels. IWM, profitless tech and high short interest companies can be the beneficiary of put expiration today and a drop in yields due to the jobs report can lift bonds and interest rate sensitive sectors like utes and reits. IMO the weaker jobs report is likely due to hurricanes and strikes hence not reflective of the general economy however algos are programmed off numbers hence yields down and US$ lower and of course they are technically extended.

Expected moves SPY(574-563.2) QQQ (490-477.7) IWM (220.2-215.4) SPX (5759-5651)

Stocks to watch AMZN, NVDA, TEAM, IWM,  AAPL, Speculative RBLX, CVNA, AVDL, UBER

Pre-800ET
Indices XLY, SMH, XLE, GDX, FXI, QQQ, USO, SPY, UNG, TLT

S&P500 WAT, AMZN, INTC, CHTR, ABT, A, CAH, BA, XOM, NVDA, CVX, UBER, CHD, DELL, AMCR, LYB, IR, SMCI, AAPL, PPL, AES, OKE, IP, SPG

NASI TEAM, CHTR, AMZN, INTC, MRVL, SIRI, ARM, ASML, TSLA, AAPL, SMCI, LIN, DDOG, PYPL, MNST
Other W, ADMA, MRVL, EQNR, OKLO, DJT, RBLX, RIVN, SMR


 

 

Trade Idea: SLV

SLV will be a beneficiary of the US$ pulling back and/or the narrative that inflation will remain sticky. Large call positions at 30 make that level one to lean long against with 29.60 as the level which will negate the thesis. Riskier than gold so take care.