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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.96%  Currencies:  USA$  -.6% YEN +.77% BTC/USD +.16%  Vix: 20.15

·       News:  USA: USA factory orders 10ET  EUR: mfg PMI generally weak but potentially small improvement

·       Stocks: CEG-8%, MAT-1.7%, ZTS+5.5% EPS  NVDA+1.4% replaced INTC-1.5% in DJIA SHW will replace DOW in DJIA; MOS higher on report that Belarus will cut potash production by 10%; Oil higher on report that OPEC cuts will be extended to the end of Dec

·       Overview: SPY 571.95 support 570 567 and resistance 573 575 SPY expected move +/- 4.1 QQQ 488 with support 485 483 resistance 490 492 expected move +/- 4.5. USA indices are flat premarket ahead of election. USA has been trading the Trump win narrative for the last 2 weeks but is reversing today on a poll from IOWA which indicated Harris winning the state. The impact is US$ lower, yields lower (bonds higher), solars higher.  MAG7 are mixed with NVDA higher on being added to DJIA; AMZN lower on Bezos selling Friday; AAPL lower on Buffet continuing to sell; TSLA lower; and META continuing to slide.  SPX 5700 remains an important bull bear level with resistance 5760. Diverse movement in MAG7 may lead to a range bound day with risk of election hedges being added which can weigh on equity. Harris trades like bonds, solars, energy, foreign currency may see continued movement as shorts cover into the election.

Expected moves SPY(575.1-567) QQQ (492-483) IWM (221-216.5) SPX (5783-5675)

Stocks to watch NVDA, MOS, SCHW, ZTS, FSLR, AAPL, AMZN,  Speculative XPEV, YUMC,  DJT

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, MSOS, TLT, SLV, KWEB, FXI, GDX, EWC, GLD, EFA, SMH, UNG, ETHE, XLU, UUP, XLY, ARKK, KRE, XLF

S&P500 MOS, ZTS, SHW, FOXA, DELL, FSLR, ENPH, NVDA, APA, KEYS, DVN, AES, HAL, CVX, CEG, SMCI, VST, TSLA, PLTR, MAR, LLY, DOC, INTC, PNW, C, NRG

NASI NVDA, SIRI, FANG, AZN, CHTR, MU, TTD, PDD, ASML, CCEP,  CEG, SMCI, TSLA, MAR, INTC, AMZN, META, AAPL, XEL, VRTX, TEAM, LULU, SBUX
Other YUMC, XPEV, VKTX, RUN, RBLX, BCS, LI, BP, PBR, LEU, TGTX, TLN, CEG, OKLO, SMR, SMCI, VST, DJT, INTC



 

Trade Idea: FSLR

Solars are one of the poorest performing sectors in 2024 and rely on govt incentives. The Trump trade is short solars and premarket solars are lifting after a weekend poll suggesting Harris could win IOWA and a Predictit market suggesting Harris could win the election.  There are large call positions at 210 which makes that a level where a short squeeze can increase with 220 and 230 upside targets. If looking for a Harris win trade, solars are an idea but suggesting this as a potential day trade > 210. Alternate thesis is a move below 209 may signal a downside move towards 205 and 200.