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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.19%  Currencies:  USA$  -.25% YEN +.4% BTC/USD +2.6%  Vix: 14.9

·         News:  USA: Retail sales, Empire state mfg 830ET, Industrial Prod 915ET China: Industrial production y/y 5.3% vs 5.5%; retail sales v/v 4.8% vs 3.8%; expectation for additional fiscal stimulus

·         Stocks:   BABA+1.95%,   AMAT-7%, ASTS-9%, OKLO-6.4%,   EPS Buffet adds DPZ, POOL drops ULTA ; Trump may eliminate EV tax credit impacting TSLA RIVN; Nomination of Kennedy to health position adversely affecting large drug companies and potentially media which receive a large percentage of revenue from drug advertizing.
Overview: SPY 590.8  support  590  and resistance 592 595 596.8   SPY expected move +/- 3.5  QQQ 504.9  with support 504.6 500  resistance 507 520 512.5 expected move +/- 4.1. USA indices moved lower Thurs on Powell downplaying further rate cuts. Retail sales were 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% and Empire Mfg was 31.2 vs -0.3 which decreases the need for the FED to cut rates in Dec. SPY and QQQ are now at the bottom of the weekly move and with a large Opex today it may be a volatile day. SPX5900 is a key support level today and given the election gap-up, there is a scarcity of RTH support below. MAG7 are generally lower ex-TSLA which is weighing on QQQ and SPY but not affecting IWM which is only slightly lower but already below the weekly expected move. AMAT negative reaction to weaker guidance is adding additional negative pressure to the semi sector with NVDA supporting and reporting next week. China stocks are up following positive retail sales data, good reports from JD and BABA and more chatter about fiscal stimulus. This is lifting the metals complex yet again with FCX AA CENX names to watch.  US$ is down a bit which is helping commodities and emerging markets. Bitcoin is still en fuego and unaffected by what’s happening in macro or equity markets, that part of the Trump trade is alive. With Opex, stocks which surged on high call activity may bleed today and markets will likely be more volatile into next week as there is less options support. 

·         Expected moves SPY(596.8-589.9), QQQ (512.7-504.6), IWM (234.5-229.3), SPX (5983.6-5914.7)

Stocks to watch BABA, AA, DPZ, PLTR, NVDA, AMAT, SMH  Speculative ZETA,  ASTS, OKLO

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, KWEB, FXI, GDX, SLV, XME, XBI, UNG, SMH, XLK, QQQ, UUP

S&P500 DPZ, PLTR, FCX, NKE, AMAT, ULTA, LRCX, MRNA, IP, CRM,

NASI PDD,  AMAT, LRCX, MRNA, AZN, CRWD
Other ZETA, AA, CENX, HIMS, HUT, BTDR, IREN, JD, RIOT, BIDU, ASTS, AMAT, HALO, OKLO, ULTA, RKLB, NVO, NU


 

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is slightly down premarket with the semi sector. Earnings will be reported next week and some analysts are still bullish on the name. Large call position at 145 can act as support and a move higher but below 144 puts can move it down to 140. Straddle approach, look for long > 145 and fade < 144. Should NVDA sell down in the morning look for the reflexive buy the dip