.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre-730ET Pre CPI

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.48%  Currencies:  USA$  +.54% YEN +.0% BTC/USD +0.13%  Vix: 16.7

·       News:  USA: PMIs 9:45 ET CDN: Retail sales 830ET EUR: Mfg and Services PMIs weaker than expected leading to drop in Euro and stronger US$ 

·       Stocks: ESTC+28%, GAP+15%, NTAP+5.9%, ROST+7%, INTU-4% Earnings MSTR Sold $3B of convertible notes TPL being added to S&P500 RDDT -7.2%
Overview: SPY 593.3 support 591 590 and resistance 595 598 SPY expected move +/- 4 QQQ 504.7 with support 502 500 resistance 506 510 expected move +/- 4.9. USA indices are flattish premarket with indices rising in NY premarket and selling down in the European session. European weak PMI data has led to a drop in the Euro and US$ breaking above 2023/2024 highs and pressuring commodities and foreign markets. USA indices reached the top of weekly expected moves Thurs as volatility fell post NVDA earnings with non-Mag7 making large moves. SPX premarket has large short call positions at 5960-5950 which may temper upside in the AM. MAG7 are led by TSLA and indices led by IWM which is a positive for the speculative names which have been leading. GOOGL continues to weaken after large move lower Thurs on FTC concerns and NVDA is lower on a downgrade. Energy had a big pop Thurs and weak today either because it was up or the weak European data or US$ move. Precious metals are popping potentially because of geopolitical concerns or because they were down as bitcoin surged. MSTR roller coaster continues after big drop Thurs but bouncing after $3B debt issuance to buy more bitcoin. ROST, GAP earnings are deemed good enough to squeeze the shorts which can lift other retailers. NTAP earnings are lifting DELL and ESTC can continue to provide reasons to buy software names, which the crowd are panic buying while moving out of semis. USA PMI 945ET may be market moving as will give a window in how the USA economy is fairing relative to the poor European and can move the US$ 

·       Expected moves SPY (597.7-589.7) QQQ (509.9-500.1) IWM (236.8-232) SPX (5988.7-5908.7)

Stocks to watch TSLA, ESTC, GAP, ROST, TPL, INTU, UNG, NVDA, GOOGL Speculative MSTR, RDDT

Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, SLV, US$, GLD, IWM, TLT, XRT, XLU, KRE, XBI, UNG, KWEB, FXI, ETHE, MSOS, USO

S&P500 NTAP, ROST, TPR, SMCI, DELL, CPRT, VST, NKE, ABBV, INTU, ALB, VTRS, HCA, GOOGL, UHS, PANW, MCHP, MKTX, FCX, CMI, NVDA,

ALL ESTC, GAP, SMCI, AU, RKLB, DJT, AZN, PBR, AFRM, SOFI, WAY, MSTR, BTDR, ZETA, RDDT, ZPEV, FUTU, BILI, BIDU, BCS, MARA, COIN




 

Trade Idea: NTAP

NTAP is a storage name that has moved above the 133 expected move and hence a candidate to to squeeze higher over the next few weeks. Call wall 135 can be used as a reference level with 140 Dec target. Below 133 risk that the earnings pop is being sold and can consider a fade. Dell is a sympathy trade but selling down premarket