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            Date: Nov 26, 2024 

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.4%  Currencies:  USA$ +.01% CAD -.9% YEN+.5%  BTC/USD -2.4%  Vix: 15.4

·       News:  USA: Trump tariff comment of 10% on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico is hitting the currencies; Consumer confidence; new home sales 10ET JPY: Core CPI y/y 1.5% vs 1.8%

·       Stocks:   DKS+8%, SMTC+16%, KSS-16.9%, ZM-6%, BBY-2.2%, ANF-1.7% Earnings NVO LLY higher on WH favoring Medicare funding; RIVN govt loan WFC potential asset cap raised 1H25 INTC more govt funding AMGN trial failed
Overview: SPY 599 support 597 595 and resistance 600 SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 508.8 with support 505 502 500  resistance 510 513 expected move +/- 3.9. USA indices are mixed premarket with large caps led by QQQ positive and IWM slightly negative. Europe and Japan red is not supportive nor is long yields higher. Latest news meme is Trump tariff comments which is likely raising inflation concerns and hitting the $CDN and $MEX and supporting the US$. S&P is in positive gamma which means that it is well supported and explains the behavior Monday where selling in NVDA and TSLA led to large positive moves in other names. High short interest names, especially retail were well bid Monday and not clear to me whether this was just rotation or hedgefund devering with shorts covered and longs sold. There is some concern with liquidity impact if bitcoin should unwind given the large levered positions. Premarket MAG7 is led by NVDA which sold down Monday and today’s reaction is important. Premarket the speculative stocks are taking a breather and worth monitoring whether the squeeze will resume. Earnings names are also worth a look for post-earnings moves with DKS, KSS, BBY, ANF, ADI, and SMTC ones to watch. Thanksgiving is usually a bullish week and traders are loaded with calls as everyone know it so still expecting dips to be bought like Monday and cautious for reaction should SPX6000 be reached.

·       Expected moves SPY (600.2-594.8) QQQ (510.5-502.7) IWM (244.6-240.2) SPX (6014-5960)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, LLY, SLV, AMGN, BBY, KSS Speculative RIVN

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, SMH, SLV, USO, XLK, KWEB, GDX, XLE, XBI, GDX, XLV, ETHE, IBIT, EWC, TLT, XRT, ARKK, IWM, MSOS

S&P500 LLY, NVDA, AMD, WFC, AMGN, GM, F, BBY

ALL ARWR, VKTX, RIVN, DKS, LLY, NVO, JD, NVDA, AMD, WFC, KSS, AMGN, ZM, CLSK, MARA, MSTR, GM, IONQ, STLA, COIN, RIOT, RKLB, AI, LUNR, HOOD

Trade Idea: IBIT

Bitcoin has fallen below the rising trend line which took bitcoin to overbought levels.  IBIT expected move into Fri is +/-2.7. Below 52 would look for 51 which is a higher volume support level and below 51 50 is the next level. Can fade bitcoin with BITI ETF or use options on IBIT. Falling bitcoin is negative for COIN HOOD MSTR MARA. Short term it’s getting oversold and a bounce could be traded >~ 53.5 or the cadre of bitcoin related names.  Further drop in bitcoin may free up liquidity to flow into other names and potentially gold/silver but no guarantee