Swing Trade Idea – November 29, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.42% Currencies: USA$ -.09% CAD +.16% YEN+.5% BTC/USD +.24% Vix: 15.0
·
News: USA: ½ day today, Media reporting that WH may back
down on semi export restrictions JP:Industrial production 3% m/m
vs 3.8%; Retail sales 1.6% y/y vs 2.1%
Stocks: MNSO-0.5% Earnings SMCI-6% was -22% on rumor of delist but big bounce premarket HAS is up on a
ELON tweet
Overview: SPY 599.6 support 598 596 595 and resistance 600
601.2, SPY expected move +/- 2.6 QQQ 508.7 with support 506 505 500
resistance 510 513 expected move +/- 3.4., USA indices were bid up post Wed
close but pulling back in NY premarket. IWM is leading premarket relative to
large cap indices. Yen is higher on speculation that BOJ may raise rates (or
just EOM/EOY flows) which is pushing down the US$ basket and pushing down
yields (raising bonds) and lifting gold/silver and supporting small caps. MAG7
are led by TSLA and NVDA with GOOGL MSFT lagging. Semis are all bid on the WH
export regulation change and given the sell down and market love affair with
semis may have continuation but be on the look out for institutions that are
selling pops. Bitcoin names are bid premarket (MSTR MARA BTDR). SMCI in play on
unverified rumors of delisting, extremely volatile. USA markets are only open
for 1/2d and volume will be light so greater potential for manipulation.
SPX6000 is the big options strike that can be used as a delimiter with 6050
major resistance above but riskier below.
·
Expected moves SPY(601.4-596.2), QQQ (508.7-502), IWM (243-239),
SPX (6025-5973)
Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, HAS, SLV, MSFT, AAPL, Speculative
MSTR,
BTDR, ZETA, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, SLV, GLD, GDX, KRE, ARKK, IWM, USO, SMH, TLT, XLF, XLY, FXI, ETHE,
KWEB, UUP
S&P500 HAS, LRCX, AMAT, GM, AMCR, CCL, IPG, GM, VST, EQT, NCLH, MRNA, DAY, TSLA, GILD, ENPH, SMCI, D, PLTR, DOW, SWK, SW, TSN, HII, WY, KO, KHC, MSFT, DD, ALL
ALL BTDR, ZETA,
MSTR, IREN, AI, LRCX, CLSK, HOOD, STLA, SMR, RIOT, CCL, RIVN, AU, SMCI, XP,
STNE, NU, PBR, GFI, IONQ, PLTR
Trade Idea: ZS
ZS is a potential run into earnings idea. Earnings are Dec 2 and there is a trend to buy these kind of names into earnings. Can use the premarket low as a line in the sand for a trade over the weekend. Short term upside target 210 and support 206. Obviously risky trade over the weekend