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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.47%  Currencies:  USA$ +.27% CAD -.04% YEN-.34%  BTC/USD+1.5%  Vix: 14.65

·         News:  USA: Small biz confidence survey 101.7 vs 94.6 Australia: Rates unchanged 4.35%
Stocks:  ORCL -6%, MDB-8%, FERG-6,2%, HQY-6%, AI-6.8%, TOL-4.8%,  OLLI+4.5%, MTN+3.3%, UNFI+13.5%, EPS GOOGL+4.5% Quantum computing chip;  BA+1.9% 737 production resuming; MU+2% Govt funding ALK+11% doubled Q4 guidance
 
Overview: SPY 604.9  support 604 602.4  and resistance 605 607  SPY expected move +/- 2.3 QQQ 523 with support 522 5 520 519   resistance 525  expected move +/- 3.  US large caps are flat premarket with global indices not supportive with Europe and China lower. Macro set-up is not supportive with long yields and US$ higher. MAG7 are generally positive led by GOOGL with a spike higher on news of a quantum computing chip. TSLA received upgrades as analysts chase the stock with call buyers targeting 400.  ORCL and MDB earnings reaction will weigh on software and cloud. MU $6B govt subsidy and TSM Nov revenue is providing some support to beleaguered semis. NVDA is flat premarket but needs to be watched with risk while below 140. Airlines are soaring after ALK raised Q4 guidance. Homebuilders are lower after TOL reported lower guidance.  AI is lower post earnings and may be affecting other profitless AI names like SOUN. Remains to be seen whether dip buyers step up or sell them.  Econ news is light so 0DTE option buyers are in control with Wed CPI the next big data point. SPX is positive gamma in range 6100-6050 but can see chop like Monday as option sellers get burned selling in a low vol environment. Correlation is low so can see outsized moves in large names compensated by broader selling in smaller names.

Expected moves SPY(607-602.4) QQQ (525.4-519.4) IWM (239.8-235.6) SPX (6075.9-6029.9)

Stocks to watch GOOGL META TSLA ALK CCL  MSFT ORCL MDB TOL  Speculative   OLLI BILI SOUN

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT GDX XLC GLD US$ IYT SLV  KWEB FXI UNG ETHE IGV TLT

S&P500 GOOGL NCLH MU BA CCL ORCL SMCI AJG

ALL UNFI ALK OLLI GOOGL AAL MU MBLY COIN BA PBR  FLNC AI BILI MDB ORCL BTDR AAOI FUTU SOUN SMCI BEKE BIDU PDD JD ASO AJG

Trade Idea: GLD

GLD is breaking out despite US$ and long yields higher. There is chatter about sovereign funds buying again. There is a gap-up which makes it a pure momo trade. Target to upside is 250, which is the prior resistance level.  Note: CPI release Wed will be a rate, US$ mover hence will move gold so can wait until the CPI prints.