Swing Trade Idea – December 16, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe,
Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – neutral
global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.3% Currencies: USA$ -.04% CAD -.14% YEN-.24% BTC/USD+2.2% Vix: 14.5
·
News: USA: Flash PMI 9:45ET China: Retail sales
significant miss EUR: MFG PMI weakening
Stocks: MSTR+3.6% PLTR-1.5% AXON added to Nasi SMCI MRNA ILMN dropped; HON+3% potential
aerospace biz split MU+3.3% upgrade ahead of earnings; OKTA+2.5% upgrade RCAT+17% PLTR deal,
earnings after close
Overview: SPY 606 support 605 603 and resistance 606.7
607.4 SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 533 with support 531 530 528
resistance 535 expected move +/- 3.6. USA large cap indices have
been rising since European open led by large cap tech. Small caps and DJIA are
lagging due to absence of MAG7. Rest of globe equities are lower with weak
economic data reported from Europe and China. Macro set-up is mildly positive
with long yields and oil lower. MAG8 are strong led by AVGO, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL,
META which often means that bulk of the S&P will lag. QQQ and maybe
SPY will hit the daily expected move in the morning where one needs to look for
continuation or rejection like Friday. Bitcoin is higher aided by Nasdaq adding
MSTR to the index which is lifting the cohort of miners, COIN, HOOD. PLTR was
added but hasn’t made a big move but worth to watch. SMCI was removed and
seeing sell action, still hasnt filed the SEC filings. USA PMI 945ET may be
market moving. SPX6100 is a large resistance level and 6000 support likely
into Dec20 Opex
Expected moves SPY(606.7-601.7) QQQ (534.2-526.9) IWM (235-231.2) SPX
(6076-6026)
Stocks to watch AVGO GOOGL META AMZN SMCI F
BABA Speculative BTDR SOUN
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT SLV GDX ARKK TLT SMH QQQ GLD XLC XLY UNG KWEB MSOS
FXI USO EFA
S&P500 AVGO MU UBER GOOGL CCL SMCI F MCHP
ALL VRDN EWTX
BTDR SOUN MSTR RIOT AVGO MRVL CLSK UBER SOFI COIN RKLB SMCI STLA F
MCHP SMR BABA HIMS PDD BP RDDT OKLO BUD
Trade Idea: RKLB
RKLB is a potential speculative breakout name. Large call position at 25 (short term) sets up the potential for a squeeze above. Large call positions 26-30, would look for the stock to move higher in $1 increments. No trade below $25. 13% short float can cause large moves.