.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.22%  Currencies:  USA$ -.28% CAD +.12% YEN+.44%  BTC/USD-2.65%  Vix: 22.3

·       News:  USA: PCE 830ET; UofM Consumer confidence  CDN: Retail Sales
Stocks: NKE-6.4%, BB-.3%,  FDX+8%,  EPS NVO-20% weight loss drug less effective than target LLY+6.7%; CLW+19% potential acquisition by SUZ; OXY+2% BRK added to shares; 

·       Overview: SPY581.6 support 578.2 575 and resistance 583.9 585 590  SPY expected move +/- 6.1 QQQ 509.6 with support 505 500 resistance 510 515 518 expected move +/- 4.2. USA indices sold down in the overnight session but are bouncing on release of the PCE data which printed 0.1% vs 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. Today is one of the largest Opex in history with SPX AM options expiring at the open which may some of the negative gamma. Single stocks are expiring at the close which prior to the drop was call-heavy and has contributed to the drop over the last few days as market makers were unwinding hedges. MAG8 are generally down with TSLA leading to the downside but are improving post PCE. Indices are negative gamma and which means that dips will be sold and pops bought which enhances volatility. SPX 6000 needs to be regained to move to positive gamma. Next week has reduced trading days which will enhance put expiration and potentially aid a bounce into year end.  Vix futures are inverted which is a risk signal with spot Vix well above Vix futures indicating short-term volatility elevated due to Opex. USA funding debate with threat of govt shutdown is also in the news feed. Probably less important than Opex but can move markets as may Consumer inflation expectations at 10ET. SPY 580 is a bull/bear reference level for today.
 
Expected moves SPY (590.2-578.2) QQQ (518.4-510) IWM (223.3-216.4) SPX (5928-5806)

Stocks to watch LLY, FDX, OXY, NOVO, NVDA, TSLA, NKE Speculative   VKTX, QUBT

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, XLV, TLT, GLD, ETHE, ARKK, IBIT, XLY, SMH, IGV, EFA, QQQ, XLK, SPY, IWM, XLC 

S&P500  FDX, LLY, OXY, AMGN, NKE, TSLA, SMCI, PLTR, MU, NVDA, PYPL, DELL, AVGO, AMD, GOOGL, LRCX, ORCL, META

ALL VKTX, FDX, LLY, OXY, AMGN, LI, PBR, NOVO, QUBT, NKE, HOOD, SMR, HUT, COIN, X, OKLO, MARA, IREN, RKLB, SOUN, TSLA, CORZ, SOFI, HIMS

Trade Idea: QQQ

QQQ is bouncing premarket from an overnight low of 505. Now 510.5, one can use 510 as a reference level for long short. Large Opex today with QQQ and MAG8 options expiring will free the index to move into year end. Many use the 50sma as a trend signal and as long as it holds QQQ is a long idea. Would assess closer to close as long call positions which are weighing on the index will have expired. May also be a day trade opportunity once the SPX AM options close at the open. There are still many risks with volatility elevated, govt shutdown, yields spiking etc so risky for sure. Option vertical trades are a risk-defined way to trade in a higher vol market.