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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 31, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.3% Currencies: USA$ -.15% CAD +.19% YEN+.27%  BTC/USD +.3%  Vix: 17.15

    ·       NewsUSA: US housing prices 9ET China: MFG PMI 50.1 vs 50.3; nonMFG PMI 52.3 vs 50.2

    ·       Stocks: VRSN +1.9% Berkshire bought TSLA+1.6% AMZN+.8% JPM+.3%

    ·       Overview: SPY 590 support 587.9 585 583.5 and resistance 591 593 SPY expected move +/- 4.8 QQQ 516.9 with support 515 512 510 resistance 520 521 expected move +/- 5.4. USA indices are higher from Mon close with some weakness forming in NY premarket. S&P500 is negative gamma which can lead to large moves in either direction. SPY 590/SPX5920 is a level to watch as a pivot level. Large 0DTE SPX iron condor is betting on range 5960-5860 and moves beyond could be violent. Long yields are lower (TLT higher) is supportive to small caps which are leading USA indices. Strength in biotech and ARKK are indicator of a potential short covering day but need to see if it carries into RTH. Bitcoin is continuing to bounce and lifting the usual suspects (MSTR HUT COIN BTDR). Speculative names: TSLA MSTR, RGTI, EH, BBAI are all bid premarket if one is a thrill seeker with a strong stomach. MAG7 are led by TSLA NVDA AMZN but all are positive. Indices are at key levels and though the premarket is set-up bullish one must be open to moves in either direction as indices are at key levels. The premarket favors the tech sector and MAG7. There is a large roll of options for structured products today which may cause some intraday volatility so need to keep ones head on a swivel.

    Expected moves SPY (593-583.5) QQQ (521-510.2) IWM (223.2-218.2) SPX (5954.4-5859.4)

    Stocks to watch
    TLT, NVDA, TSLA, IWM Speculative MBLY MSTR BTDR BBAI

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    TLT, XBI, IWM, ARKK, SMH, US$, IBIT, SMH, KRE, UNG, SLV, USO

    S&P500 VRSN, SMCI, VST
    Other ACAD, MSTR, BTDR, HUT, MBLY, MARA, COIN, JD, HOOD, SHEL, CRSP, MT, BP, HIMS, NLY, STWD, QUBT





    Trade Idea: MBLY

    MBLY is a Israeli mfg of self-driving technology. Large call positions at 20 which its currently above with large call positions at 20.5, 21, 22, 25. It has now closed the prior gap from Aug and there is a volume gap to 25. Long candidate either as a momentum trade or on a pullback > 19.  

     

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