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 Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.08% Currencies: USA$ -1% CAD +.92% YEN+.44%  BTC/USD +1% Vix: 16.55

·       News: China: Caixin services 52.2 better than expected; more stimulus. Lifting China stocks and commodities CDN: Trudeau potentially resigning which is positive for CDN$ and CDN equity USA: Final services PMI 945ET; Factory orders 10ET EUR: Final services PMI slightly better than expected

·       Stocks:  NVDA+2.6% TSLA +2.7% UBER +4.4% SHOP+2.8%

·       Overview: SPY 596.7 support 595 590 and resistance 598 600 SPY expected move +/- 3.5 QQQ 524.3 with support 520 resistance 527 530 expected move +/- 4.3. USA indices rocket higher at 3ET coincident with a drop in the US$ against other currencies potentially due to better China data and more stimulus talk or just because it was extended. The drop in US$ is lifting commodities and foreign stocks. Long yields are slightly lower so the move today is mostly currency-related with the caveat that the US$ remains bullish and has the potential to bounce back. SPY is short term extended (RSI 86 on 30min) but still not at the daily expected move. 0DTE traders will try to move SPY to 600 if the daily expected can be breached with caveat that need to watch for the overnight move being sold. MAG7 are positive with outperformance by TSLA and NVDA. CES starts this week and many tech companies will be presenting which can lead to analyst clowns upgrading and chasing price. Jenson, CEO of NVDA is presenting Mon night. He is a good salesman and has the potential to lift not just NVDA but the AI/Semi sector.  Natgas is flying with colder weather forecast and oil is continuing higher.  UBER is higher on a large buyback; MU is moving with NVDA; FCX moving with US$ and maybe China; Solar names are moving maybe because they were killed in 2024; Nuclear names (e.g. SMR) bid again; bitcoin strong and MSTR issuing $2B of preferreds is being lifted which is counter intuitive but it’s in play. Overall a risk-on set-up with IMO the currency the driver. As long as it lasts, high short interest names will be beneficiaries. There is influential jobs data this week and the move today is what I would expect if the jobs data would be weak but not too weak. 
Expected moves SPY (598-591) QQQ (527-518) IWM (223.4-219.4) SPX (6008-5939)

Stocks to watch NVDA, TSLA, MU, MSTR, UBER, SHOP, UUP   Speculative SMR, CHWY

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, SMH, KWEB, ARKK, XME, FXI, EWC, FEZ, EFA, SLV, XLK, IWM, XLY, QQQ, UUP, GLD, TLT

S&P500 MU, SMCI, UBER, ENPH, DLTR, NUE, FCX, TER, AMD, MRNA, FSLR, FTNT, TSLA, GEV, AMAT, NVDA, GM, TMUS
Other KTOS, SMR, STM, PDD, STLA, PATH, VRT, CHWY, X, MNSO

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP is higher on an upgrade and has broken out over recent highs. Stock is extended premarket but above the key 110 strike. Above 110 there are large call positions at 115 and 120. Pullback > 110 is a potential long idea. But no long trade below