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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.06%  Currencies:  USA$ -.04% CAD -.1% YEN+.09%  BTC/USD +1.3%  Vix: 18.2

·       News:  USA: non-farm payrolls 830ET; Consumer sentiment 10ET  CDN:  Jobs report JPY: Leading indicators declining

·       Stocks: DAL+8% STZ-2.9% WBA+15% EPS TSM+1% Dec sales 0.8% higher m/m and 58% higher y/y (stock up over 100%) CEG+13% buying Calpine AMD-2% GS downgrade with $129 target Healthcare stocks improving: UNH, CNC MDT, BSX, PFE Insurance: Property casualty names getting hit due to losses from Cali wildfires

·       Overview: SPY 584.7 with support at 587.5 and 585 and resistance at 590, 592.2, and 595 SPY expected move +/- 5.3 QQQ 510.5 with support at 510 and resistance at 515 expected move +/- 6.3.  *** Non-farm payrolls 256k vs 164k, UE rate 4.1% CDN jobs 90k vs 25k UE rate 6.7% vs 6.9% Better than expected  jobs data which has the expected reaction of US$ higher, yields higher and equity lower.  SPY is below the daily expected move and below the put wall which can lead to a larger than expected move. SPX being in negative gamma has potential to drop to 5830 or 5800 based on premarket positioning. One feature of negative gamma is moves can be exaggerated in both directions and if puts close, can lead to strong bounces. SPY is bouncing after the initial drop, one can use 585 as a level that can indicate bounce may hold but risk of SPX5800 is possible. MAG7 are weak premarket with NVDA the weakest but the drop is inline with the SPY drop. The Supreme Court is ruling on Tiktok today and if approve the ban, could be positive for META but Trump may wish to change the law, stay tuned. Consumer confidence data at 10ET may be market moving with inflation expectations, the important report.  Energy, healthcare and utilities are likely the best long sectors but watch the MAG7 for signs of a bounce. SPY is still teetering at the bottom of the daily expected move; below can retest 582, 580 and above 585 the shorts are covering and a bounce can occur.

Expected moves SPY(594.8-584.2) QQQ (521.6-509) IWM (225.3-218.1) SPX (5971.3-5918)

Stocks to watch DAL, GLD, CEG, NVO, NVDA, AMD, JD, TSLA   Speculative FRO

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, UNG, GDX, XLE, IBIT, SLV, ETHE, MSOS, XLU, GLD, FXI, KWEB, ARKK, XLK, SMH, XLF, QQQ

S&P500 CEG, DAL, UAL, VST, LUV, OXY, FCX, SLB, HD, XOM, CTRA, CVS, ABNB, TGT, KHC, LEN,  ALL, CB, PGR, STZ,  AIG, ON, VZ, PCG, WBD,
Other CPRI, FRO, AAL, GFI, RUN, TRMD, NVO, OKLO, SMR, PBR, RGTI,  ZIM, ACHR, HIMS, MBLY, JD, BILI, BABA, DJT, XPEV, HOOD

Trade Idea: GLD

GLD was higher ahead of the non-farm payroll report and is higher even with the US$ higher and yields higher which is counter intuitive. When something that should fall is rising, it indicates that something else is driving it which could be sovereign wealth buying or hedging if concerned with risk. Would look at 250 as the first target to upside which is a prior high. Also seeing strength in some miners, which are riskier than the metal (e.g. AGI, GFI, KGC are smaller and NEM is large)