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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.33% Currencies: USA$ +0.2% CAD -.44% YEN+.15%  BTC/USD -.19% Vix: 16.25

·       News: USA: Retail Sales, UE claims, Philly Fed 830ET FOMC Williams 11ET  UK: GDP m/m 0.1% vs 0.2%

·       Stocks: TSM+4.4%, BAC+.15%, MS+.77%, USB-2.6%, PNC-3.5%, UNH-3.4% EPS Hotnames: SYM+22% WMT deal QUBT+11% quantum euphoria

·       Overview: SPY 593.4 support 592 590 589 and resistance 595 596.8 SPY expected move +/- 4 QQQ 518 with support 515 510 resistance 518 520 expected move +/- 4.9. USA indices consolidating Wed bounce post CPI print. Index move was fueled by the unwind of puts/shorts and drop of implied volatility. SPY, IWM are now above the weekly expected move and QQQ is at the top which means they are statistically extended. *** Core retail sales 0.4% vs 0.5% expected but above prior 0.2%, UE claims 217k vs 210k, Philly Fed 44.3 vs -5.2 *** Bonds bounced on the CPI print but are down slightly premarket. TLT is above the weekly expected move, hence extended. US$ remains strong so the kryptonite combination of strong US$ and high yields has not reversed and hence a risk for the continuation of the market bounce which was mechanical. TSM earnings have lifted the semi and AI space. They are forecasting 20% CAGR with AI which is mid-teens revenue to accelerate. UNH missed revenue and weighing on healthcare insurers and the DJIA due to it’s price level. Bank reaction today is mixed after Wed surge. Tiktok ban decision has not yet been released by SC. Trump has suggested that he may try to prevent (difficult) but it’s weighing on META SNAP which are believed to benefit if Tiktok is shutdown or not transferred to a USA controlled company. MAG7 are a mixed bag with NVDA leading and META/GOOGL lagging along with TSLA which cut prices on Cybertruck. Note that the option expiration Fri is huge for single stock options and names with alot of out of the money options can make large moves Fri and next week.
Expected moves SPY(596.8-588.8) QQQ (521.6-511.8) IWM (226.2-221.8) SPX (5989.9-5909.9)

Stocks to watch TSM, NVDA, META, TSLA, UNH Speculative SYM, QUBT, IONQ

Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, MSOS, XLK, UUP, UNG, ETHE, USO, TLT, SLV, XLV, XLE, IWM, EWC, XLY

S&P500 AMAT, DXCM, LRCX, EL, TPR, KLAC, SMCI, AVGO, UPS, FSLR, NVDA, TER, PNC, UNH, CVS, USB, ELV, LUV, CI, CNC, ENPH, META, GOOGL, TXN, TSLA, JPM
Other SYM, QUBT, TSM, ASML, XPEV, CRSP, FTAI, BILI, MBLY, SOUN, OKLO, RIVN, MRVL, IONQ, SNAP, FRO, RIOT, INFY

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is in play with TSM earnings positive response. Large call position at 140 makes it the target for the week. Popped on the TSM EPS and currently pulling back in the premarket with premarket low 137.5 which can be used as a reference. Above 140 there is potential for a squeeze to 141/142. Next week is a risk post Opex as many of the 140 calls will be expiring.