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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 24, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia slight positive  global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.03% Currencies: USA$ -.29% CAD +.20% YEN-.37%  BTC/USD +1.8% Vix: 16.45

    ·       News: USA: PMI 9:45ET; Consumer sentiment 10ET JP: BOJ raised rates by 25bps as expected EUR: PMI data improving with mfg still weak

    ·       Stocks: VZ+.46% CSX-3.6% TXN-4% ERIC-10.6% ISRG -2.3% AXP-.3%  EPS TWLO +18% Analyst upgrade NVO+11% positive drug results AFRM+4.5% Investment BA Warned of loss

    ·       Overview: SPY 608.8 support 607 605 and resistance 610 612.7 SPY expected move +/- 2.9 QQQ 532 with support 530 529 resistance 535 536.6 expected move +/- 4. USA indices are slightly lower after Thurs late day surge but rest of the global equities are higher. US$ is lower as Euro is higher on better economic data but Yen is lower after BOJ raised rates as expected. Precious metals and metals are higher as are China and emerging markets which may be dollar related. MAG7 are led by AAPL (upgrade) TSLA (new model) and META with NVDA lagging after Thurs surge. US indices are above the weekly expected move and hence extended but as displayed Thurs can easily be manipulated with low volume. Trump less aggressive comments regarding China tariffs are supportive. Bitcoin is higher after turbulence around the executive order which did not appear to offer a concrete reason to pump bitcoin higher. The SPX iron condor seller has strikes at 6140, 6090 which are levels to use as reference today. USA PMI 945ET and Consumer inflation expectations at 10ET may be market moving so take care.
       
    Expected moves SPY (612.7-606.9) QQQ (536.6-528.7) IWM (231-227.6) SPX (6148-6090)

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, TWLO, NVO, AFRM, GFI, NVDA, TXN, AXP  Speculative TEM, QUBT, NN
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, IBIT, KWEB, SLV, FXI, GDX, GLD, USO, EFA, ARKK, UNG, UUP, XLV, SMH, IWM, XLF, RSP, SPY

    S&P500 MRNA, VZ, VST, TXN, NEE, PFE, BA
    Other TWLO, NVO, AFRM, GFI, JD, HIMX, XPEV, RIOT, MARA, COIN, TXN, VKTX, NEE, PFE, BA, SMR






    Trade Idea: HIMX

    HIMX is a mfg of image sensors used in cameras and display drivers. HIMX is a supplier of micro-lens arrays to TSMC for their Compact Universal Photonic Engine which is a technology which can be used for very high speed transmission and expected to be available 2025-2026.  Stock has made an explositve move this week and is extended technically. There are call strikes building at 15, which is 25% higher. One can look for consolidation/pullback for a longer term trade. Probably risky as a short term trade unless very agile. HIMX is joining the AI euphoria bucket but not as well known as NVDA et al.

     

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