.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.03% Currencies: USA$ -.29% CAD +.20% YEN-.37%  BTC/USD +1.5% Vix: 17.5

·       News: USA: Durable goods 830ET; Focusing prices 9ET; Consumer confidence 10ET; Tariff talk JPN: CPI y/y 1.9% vs 1.7%

·       Stocks:  SAP -1%, NEP-12%, RTX+2%, BA+.4%, LMT-3%, RCL+4.6%, GM -1.7%, KMB-.4%, SYY, SYF-5%, NUE, EPS 

·       Overview: SPY 601.3 Resistance 602 605 Support 600 595; QQQ 516.3 Resistance 520 518 Support 510 508. Macro setup is slightly negative with yields and US$ rising on tariff talk. USA equity had a strong rotation Monday with AI related names selling down but buying in the other sectors indicating that the market is not ready to sell-off. In premarket today the leaders are the names sold Monday but the DeepSeek narrative hasn’t changed. SPX6000 is an important hold level as there are large put positions below than can lead to a large drop. Levered ETFs in names like NVDA contributed to a lack of liquidity Monday and contributed to the size of the drop. FOMC and MAG7 earnings this week will keep volatility elevated until Thurs and remains to be seen whether a dovish Fed and ok earnings lead to the usual bounce as IV falls or the trapdoor in place opens with a hawkish Fed or disappointing earnings. MAG7 are today led by NVDA and META and the other AI names like AVGO, ORCL, VST, CEG, NNE, ANET are having a bounce after Monday selldown. Market is still indecisive whether the narrative that AI requires boatloads of expensive NVDA chips powered from nuclear reactors or can be provided with much simpler technology. Wall street has hitched its horse to the former. Should tech bounce continue, we may see the inverse of Monday, where money sloshes back to tech at the expense of the other sectors with caveat that the indices hold.

Expected Move  SPX (6055-5969) SPY (603.6-595) QQQ (520-508) IWM (228.6-224.4)

Stocks to watch NVDA, RCL, AVGO, AMZN Speculative ALAB
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, USO, ETHE, SMH, XLK, KWEB, UUP, QQQ, UNG, TLT, FXI, XLP, EFA

S&P500 RCL, VST, ANET, GEV, AVGO, CEG, NVDA, ORCL, NCLH, MU,  JNPR, IP
Other ALAB, NBIS, NNE, CRDO, BTDR, CLS, OKLO, MRVL, VRT, IREN, IONQ, TSM, ARM, RIOT, NEP, SOUN, VIK

Trade Idea: CRM

Monster move by CRM on the sell-off of the AI names with notion that AI can be less hardware intensive. Call heavy above 350 with large positions at 360 and 370 so can consider long > 350. Competitor SAP announced ok earnings which is supportive.