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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.03% Currencies:  USA$ -.29% CAD +.20% YEN-.37%  BTC/USD +1.13%  Vix: 16.9

·       News: USA: FOMC Rate decision 14ET CDN: Rate decision 14ET

·       Stocks:  SYK-1.8%, SBUX+2.3%, EAT+11%, CB MANH-23%, FFIV+13%, LOGI+3%, QRVO-4.5%, ASML+5.6%, TMUS+6.3%, DHR-5%, ADP+.9%, GD, NSC, HES, GLW+5.9%, GIB, VFC+2%, LC-21.6% EPS AAPL -1% downgrade BABA +3.5% AI app announced claimed better than DeepSeek 

·       Overview: SPY 603.8 Resistance 605 607 609 Support 603 600; QQQ 522.7 Resistance 524 525 527 Support 521 520 516. USA indices rose overnight and are pulling back to Tues close. Tues was a low breadth bounce led by the AI and MAG7 names following the Mon DeepSeek related drop. Latest AI tremor is BABA announcing an App that performs better then DeepSeek which may shake the tree again. Macro is mixed with long yields lower but US$ higher and commodities higher. MAG7 are generally lower with AMZN and GOOGL higher and NVDA -2% leading lower after a late day squeeze Tues. AAPL -1.6% was downgraded and has had a couple of strong days. QRVO -4.6% mentioned that it’s largest customer aka AAPL is forecast to be flat in FY2026. ASML is higher on better than expected earnings and strong bookings likely due to USA semi buildout. Should lift AMAT, LRCX et al. FFIV has moved above the expected move on earnings which may lift other cloud security names like ZS. Security names and software have been strong as tech money has rotated from semis.  EAT+11% (2x the expected move) indicates people are still eating out. SBUX is higher after results less bad i.e. -4% y/y growth vs -5%. FOMC meeting this afternoon where focus will be on projection for rate cuts but more importantly META, MSFT, TSLA are reporting earnings. The bulk of S&P500 earnings has come from MAG7 and the question is whether the large capital expenditure is translating into additional earnings, whether the expense will continue and whether the advances from China will cause a rethink of future spending plans. NVDA of course will be moving on META, MSFT capital plans. SPX 6000 is the important hold level for bulls. Implied volatility is low IMO so potential for a larger than expected move by Thurs morning.

Expected Move SPX (6110-6025) SPY (609-600) QQQ (527-516) IWM (229-225)

Stocks to watch ASML, FFIV, TMUS, NVDA, AAPL, DHR Speculative   IBIT, LC
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, IBIT, SMH, ETHE, KWEB, FXI, SLV, QQQ, USO, XLU, XLV, GDX, XLF

S&P500 TMUS, LRCX, MU, AMD, SMCI, AVGO, AAPL, NVDA
Other ASML, BE, BABA, NBIS, VRT, VFC, TSM, GFI, LC, TEVA, ASTS, RGTI, RIVN

Trade Idea: META

META reports earnings after the close. Technically stretched with little room for error. Large capital expenditures for AI that may or may not translate into earnings increases with plans to continue to spend. META is ultimately dependent on ad spending and their forecast will need to be strong. There was a boost on META buying TikTok but should that not happen, it may take some air out of the sails. Expected move is +/-46 or  6.8% is greater than the last 2 but META has moved +/- 24% in the last 2 years which sets up some interesting option trades that I will provide members and a warning to shareholders that a collar is an idea.