.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up,

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.88% Currencies: USA$ +.77% CAD -1.1% YEN+.45% BTC/USD -6.4% Vix: 18.8

·       News: USA: USA imposed 25% tariffs on Canada with 10% on energy; 25% on Mexico; 10% on China; ISM mfg 10ET; FOMC Bostic 1230ET Mexico/Canada: Retaliatory tariffs Europe: CPI 2.5% vs 2.4%; Mfg PMI 46.6 vs 46.1 still contracting

·       Stocks: TWST TSN+3.8%, IDXX+6.6% EPS  

·       Overview: SPY 593 Resistance 595 598 Support 590 585; QQQ 513 Resistance 520 522 525 Support 500. Global equity are lower post the tariff announcement with S&P500 testing the DeepSeek low. US$ is higher which is negative for most assets but yields are lower which is counter the narrative that tariffs are inflationary. IMO with markets risk-off, bonds, gold, Yen are higher in a textbook risk-off set-up. Crypto currencies are being hit hard with ETHE -22% which can spillover to equity. MAG7 are negative, led to the downside by TSLA and NVDA. TSLA sales in Europe were down and with China operation potential tariff concerns. NVDA risk is export restrictions to many traditional friendly countries. Auto companies with operations very interconnected between USA, Canada, and Mexico are sharply down. Dollar stores (DLTR, DG) were down Fri and continuing today. COST, WMT are large grocers and can be impacted by Mexico counter tariffs. Oil and natgas are higher due to Canadian tariffs, ultimately Canadian energy names and USA refineries (e.g. VLO) may be impacted the most. Indices are negative gamma which means large moves in either direction are expected. SPY 590 is a support level that can lead to a drop to 585 if breached and 595 a resistance level that can lead to a larger move if breached. Drop is similar to last Mon DeepSeek drop which recovered as put sellers stepped in. Tariffs are driving the move and take effect Tues with Trump meeting with Canada and Mexico today. Vix futures are 18.6 which is below Sunday highs and suggests that there isnt extreme panic. IMO market is still expecting Trump to back down on the tariffs which increases risk of a larger move to downside if SPY 590 / SPX5900 doesnt hold.


Expected Move: SPX (6088-6060) SPY (605.9-597.7) QQQ (527.4-517.2) IWM (229.6-223.4)

Stocks to watch GDX, NVDA, TSLA, GM, C, TGT Speculative HUT, SMR, NBIS
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, TLT, UUP, GDX, SLV, ETHE, IBIT, ARKK, SMH, KWEB, EWC, KRE, XLK, XLY, MSOS, XBI, QQQ, XRT

S&P500 GM, VST, F, NVDA, ANET, DELL, AVGO, C, CCL, TSLA, SMCI, TGT, NCLH, MU, BAC, MRNA, AMD, ORCL
Other TGI, KC, HUT, SMR, NBIS, IREN, OKLO, MARA, BTDR, NNE, COIN, CRDO, VRT, MGA, HOOD, PDD, SHOP, DJT, ENVX 

Trade Idea: SPY

SPY is at the bottom of the weekly expected move and overnight hit last Mon low. Tariffs are the catalyst. Volatility indicates a lack of panic and potentially a belief that Trump will back down. Trump is meeting with Canada and Mexico today so anything is possible. A positive statement on tariffs can lead to a strong bounce back and should the tariffs be imposed, a volatility spike and lower levels like SPX5800 are possible. There is an unfilled SPY gap to 585 which is a potential target. Option strategies are call butterfly to inexpensively trade an upside recovery and put spreads to trade continuation lower. Note that there are GOOGL, AMZN earnings and jobs reports this week which are market moving. SPY expected move into Friday is +/10 or roughly 600-580.