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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.16% Currencies: USA$ +.32%, CAD -.09%, YEN-.64%, BTC/USD-.15% Vix: 23.95

·       News: USA: CPI 830ET; 10y bond auction 13ET CDN BOC rate decision 25bps cut expected

·       Stocks: EH +9%, ZIM+2.1%, VNET+7.8% EPS INTC+5% JV with TSM, AVGO, NVDA being discussed to run INTC foundry
Overview: SPY 562.6 Expected move 8.4 Resistance 565 568 Support 560 558.9 555; QQQ 478.3 Expected move 9.1 Resistance 480 483 Support 475 470. USA indices were higher overnight ahead of the CPI report which was less than expected. Immediate response was to move up with SPY hitting the upper daily expected move and then pulling back. SPY is above 560 premarket and a level to watch as a bull bear level. IMO tariff uncertainty is now the most important factor as market is not concerned with inflation and EU announced counter tariffs today. Vix futures are lower (23.5) which is positive for equity but still elevated. Premarket the MAG7 have bounced with the most beaten down the strongest led by TSLA NVDA with AAPL lagging. Expected that the most shorted/beaten down names will bounce the most but remains to be seen whether the bounce is to be used for exit so take care chasing. Technically indices are oversold with IV very elevated so there is a set-up for a bounce which may be led by the Nasi. The indices are put dominated so a drop in IV can lead to a mechanical push higher. Caveat that Vix futures are inverted indicating institutional hedging and lately bounces have been used as opportunities to sell. QQQ 480.7 is the top of the daily expected move hence may act as resistance but above can squeeze to 483 (call wall). SPY 565 may be resistance if it can continue higher and squeeze above. A bit of caution warranted since everyone is looking for the bounce recovery and market likes to play the spoiler.

Expected Move SPX (5656-5488), SPY (564-547), QQQ (480.7-462.5), IWM (205-196.5)

Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, META, CRWD, INTC, DAL, ORCL, KSS, AAPL Speculative SMCI, PLTR, RKT
Pre-800ET
Indices ARKK, SMH, IGV, XLK, MSOS, KRE, XLY, QQQ, ARKG, USO, UNG, KWEB, GDX

S&P500 SMCI, PLTR, TSLA, INTC, VST, MU, NVDA, AVGO, MU, AMD, META, AMZN, VZ, T, LLY

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA is bouncing as shorts cover. Above 245 look for 250 and higher. There is a large put position at 250 so above can squeeze, especially if IV falls. TSLA is in a strong down trend so would be on the lookout for a reversal at 250 which turn into a fade today. Same logic applies to NVDA, look for the squeeze higher with the idea that it can stall and reverse.