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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.21% Currencies: USA$ -.2% CAD +0.17% YEN-0.01%  BTC/USD+.64%  Vix: 21.65

·       News: USA: Retail sales; Empire state mfg  830ET China: Industrial production, retail sales improving but UE increasing 

·       Stocks: AFRM-11.8% WMT making Klarna exclusive BNPL provider; NVDA+1.4% starting week long GPU conference with Quantum day Thurs IONQ, QBTS, RGTI. Jenson will be delivering keynote Monday. Potential to jack up the AI bros: PLTR MU AVGO SMCI OKLO VST which have pulled back as hedge funds have been unloading and retail buying.
Overview: SPY 561 Expected move 5.9 Resistance 565 568.8 Support 560 559.2 557; QQQ 478.8 Expected move 6.3 Resistance 480 483 486 Support 475 473. USA indices are slightly lower, digesting the Fri oversold bounce. US$ and yields lower is in theory positive for equities however equities have become correlated with the US$. Volatility fell Fri and a large driver of the equity bounce was due to the combination of large put positions and falling volatility. Vix futures are lower but still elevated and inverted so better but not recovery. Indices are still technically in short term downtrends but the crowd is looking for a bounce continuation which may occur but bear in mind that hedge funds have been selling, CTAS & vol control funds are short. The large put positions can lead to large moves in either direction. SPX iron condor seller is defining a range of 5680-5580 and look for one of those levels to be hit. NVDA is holding a week long GPU meeting which should be a lovefest for AI names and quantum names. Premarket NVDA, PLTR, NBIS, SOUN aer AI names bouncing. Quantum had huge moves Fri and are higher today. Hedgefunds have been selling AI related names including power and unknown is whether a bounce is sustainable or an opportunity for exiting. MAG7 names are mixed with AAPL lower on weak China data. China econ data was better than expected which is a positive for emerging markets which also benefit from a lower US$. Retail sales 830ET will be market moving as sentiment is negative for the US consumer and stocks like WMT and COST have been sold down.
 

Expected Move  SPX (5697-5580), SPY (569-557), QQQ (486-473), IWM (206-200)

Stocks to watch NVDA, PLTR, INTC, AFRM, AAPL Speculative QBTS, IONQ, RGTI, OKLO
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, GLD, GDX, SMH, TLT, IBIT, ETHE, IWM, XLF, KRE

S&P500 NCLH, PLTR, INTC, NVDA, AMD
Other QBTS, DYN, ZIM, IONQ, RGTI, OKLO, PLTR, XPEV, RKLB, BEKE, SOUN, NBIS, AFRM, BTDR
 

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is hosting a GPU conference all week and Jensen will be giving the keynote Tues pm and dressed in a black leather jacket will try his best to pump. If he is successful it should be positive for the AI bros: PLTR AVGO MU DELL NBIS SOUN. NVDA 123.4 premarket, already bid up. Large call positions at 122, 124, 125 130 and puts at 120. Long idea while price > 120 with swing targets of 130-140. Momentum trader can consider long > 124 or alternatively look for pullback > 120 with ideally a bounce off of VWAP. Caveat is the stock and index have been distributed and there is a very real possibility that bounces are sold unless Jensen is successful pumping. Defined risk option trades are a way to trade the pump or alternative.